The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 75%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch," there's a 25% probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September and a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 13.3%, with a 51.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 35.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.