Analysis: BTC's short-term cost line of $108,800 becomes the dividing line between bull and bear markets

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH-RP, currently at $108,800) represents the sentimental "bull-bear divide," reflecting the average turnover cost of short-term holdings. If the BTC price falls below this line, short-term investors' unrealized profits will turn into unrealized losses, potentially shifting market sentiment from anxiety to panic and derailing the previous upward trend. Historical data shows that after a break below this level, the market recovery period is prolonged, with prices potentially experiencing wide fluctuations or rapid declines, depending on market sentiment and macroeconomic factors. The current support range is between $112,000 and $108,000. If broken, theoretically, there is still 10%-15% room for decline, but this needs to be judged in light of the actual macroeconomic environment. Analysts recommend that investors develop trading plans in advance and respond flexibly to market fluctuations. They also emphasize that the current macroeconomic cycle remains accommodative, and the BTC holdings structure is healthy, with no clear signs of a bearish turn.