UBS: If Trump's tariffs are overturned, the Fed may have an opportunity to cut interest rates amid fiscal pressure on the US.

UBS analysis: If the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the government will be required to refund $140 billion in taxes, representing 7.9% of the budget deficit. This move may trigger a fiscal shock, but it would be beneficial to the economy and stock market in the long run, reducing inflationary pressures and providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.