Analysis: A recovery in the crypto market in 2026 requires ETF expansion, large-cap market leadership, or a return of retail investor attention.

The traditional "four-year cycle" of the crypto market has become ineffective, and the market performance in 2025 signifies a shift in the industry from speculation to a more mature asset class. The market in 2025 was extremely concentrated. Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) formed a "capital siege," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital did not naturally rotate to the broader market. Over-the-counter trading data shows that the wealth transmission effect from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to blue chips and altcoins, was significantly weakened in 2025. The average rebound cycle for altcoins shortened from 60 days in 2024 to 20 days.