Binance report: If oil prices remain above $110, Bitcoin may break its correlation with US stocks, triggering the "digital gold" narrative.

CoinFeed reported on March 4th that, according to a macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions between 1979 and 2019 reveals a two-stage oil price pattern: The first stage is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing is uncertain rather than based on scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9% on the fifth day of the current conflict, indicating that the market is pricing in the tail risk ahead of time. The second stage is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when the Gulf countries' 25-day inventory buffer is exhausted and they are forced to shut down production. Historically, this stage has seen an average increase of 44%, with extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report points out that the daily oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased from the normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels. With only a 25-day inventory buffer remaining in the Gulf countries, oil fields will be forced to shut down when storage tank utilization reaches the critical threshold of 85%, and oil prices will enter an accelerated phase of the "scarcity digestion period."