Agent of "1011 Crash Insider Whale": 15% Supply Shortage in the Strait of Hormuz Could Push Oil Prices Up Sharply

On March 8th, CoinFeed reported that Garrett Jin, an agent of the on-chain analyst "1011 Crash Insider Whale," published an article on the X platform pointing out a clear correlation between historical oil supply gaps and oil price increases: in 1973, a supply gap of approximately 7% drove oil prices up by about 300%; in 1979, a gap of approximately 4-5% drove oil prices more than double; and supply disruptions around 1990 also led to a significant price increase. All three crises were related to the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts on energy supplies. He stated that the current potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 15%, far exceeding historical cases. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only "a few days to a few weeks," but very few models anticipate it could last for months. If market expectations regarding the duration are broken, more long positions may be forced into the market, further pushing up oil prices.