The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September has increased after the release of US ADP and GDP data.

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.9% (the same as before the data was released), with a 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 37.9% (down from 34% before the data was released), with a 60.9% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.