Sygnum: Prediction markets become a "real-time radar" for geopolitical risks; bets on the Iran situation dominate Bitcoin volatility.

CoinFeed reported on April 6th, citing Cointelegraph, that Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer of Sygnum Bank, pointed out that prediction markets are rapidly evolving into a "real-time radar" for traders monitoring macroeconomic risks during the escalation of the conflict with Iran. Platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are rapidly repricing bets on whether the US will escalate the conflict, and this is directly correlated with Bitcoin price movements. Prediction markets price "clear-cut event outcomes" with real money, providing a more differentiated signal for the crypto market, which is significantly driven by "binary events" such as regulation, geopolitics, and protocol escalations. Data shows that prediction market transactions reached approximately 191 million in March, a year-on-year increase of 2838%, with monthly nominal trading volume rising to approximately $23.9 billion.