QCP Group: The BTC rebound is a sentiment correction; macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties remain.

CoinFeed reported on April 22 that, according to QCP Group, BTC rebounded from an overnight low of around $75,000 to around $78,000, but this was more of a sentiment recovery following the easing of ceasefire risks than a trend reversal. Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran and Fed Chair-designate Kevin Warsh's emphasis on data dependence and policy independence temporarily reduced the market's probability of short-term escalation. However, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade, Iran's unclear stance on the extension, and oil prices hovering around $100 are contributing to sticky inflation and limiting the scope for further easing. BTC futures open interest has rebounded significantly, and funding rates remain negative, indicating that short selling continues to accumulate at high levels. The implied volatility of front-end options is around 40, suggesting a more range-bound structure than a unilateral breakout. Overall, the conflict premium has not yet subsided significantly.