Analysis: Kalshi's predictions of US non-farm payroll data did not outperform economists' predictions.

CoinFeed reported on May 7th, citing Bloomberg, that academic research and Bloomberg data analysis show that the prediction market platform Kalshi has not significantly outperformed traditional economists in forecasting US non-farm payroll data. Over the past 33 months, the average error for both Kalshi traders and economists surveyed by Bloomberg has exceeded 60,000 jobs, showing no statistically significant advantage. When the April 2026 non-farm payrolls report shows an increase of 178,000 jobs, Kalshi's final prediction error will exceed 90,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists believe that prediction markets are more like "new types of gambling," lacking value in analyzing in-depth data such as employment structure. However, supporters argue that prediction markets possess advantages such as real-time updates and "collective intelligence," and may still improve macroeconomic forecasting capabilities in the future.