Analysis: Bitcoin has recovered to the real market average but has not yet firmly established itself; it needs several weeks to months of consolidation to confirm the trend.

CoinFeed reported on May 21 that, according to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin has recovered to its true market average of $78,300 but failed to hold above it. Historical cycles suggest that it needs to consolidate around this level for weeks to months before confirming a credible bullish transition. The current 30-day cost base of $78,200 has turned from support into resistance, while the cost base of the accumulation phase from February to April at $71,400 provides the most direct support for the current pullback. On the demand side, the realized profit/loss ratio of the 30-day moving average surged from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rally, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking and needs to remain above 2 to signal a genuine recovery in buying. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened recently, with the cumulative spot trading volume difference still negative and Coinbase activity continuing to lag, indicating weak institutional participation in the spot market in the US, despite occasional offshore speculative demand.