Bond strategists warn that yields will remain high even after the Iran war ends.
CoinFeed reported on May 24th that, according to Jinshi, while concerns about war-induced inflation persist, there are signs that other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the US, the so-called "real yield," adjusted for inflation, has a greater impact, suggesting that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures from the Iran war. Other contributing factors include: the potential for further expansion of the already massive public debt burden, the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom, and the increasing likelihood of interest rate hikes rather than cuts by central banks like the Federal Reserve. Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays emphasize that a common assumption is that the recent rise in some long-term yields will not be completely reversed even if inflation falls back due to rising oil prices. This means that even after the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to put pressure on governments and the economy.