HTX DeepThink: From 'When to Cut Rates' to 'Whether to Hike', Hawkish Repricing Dominates July Market

HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) provides an outlook for the US stock and crypto markets in July, pointing out that the June FOMC meeting signified a fundamental shift in market logic: investors are no longer discussing 'when to cut rates,' but instead are assessing whether the Fed will raise rates again. More importantly, Bessent has signaled that the White House respects Warsh's policy independence, reducing expectations that political forces would block a rate hike. Thus, the core contradiction in July's market will shift from whether the economy is in recession to whether inflation can fall enough to prevent a September rate hike.