Galaxy Research Lowers Probability of CLARITY Act Passage to 50%

CoinFeed June 29 news, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Galaxy Research lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% three weeks ago to 50%, due to the increasingly crowded Senate schedule, the bill not yet having a merged text, no scheduled vote, and no public commitment from leadership. The bill, after passing the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, has been listed as Item 423 on the legislative calendar and has not yet been scheduled for a motion to proceed. The report notes that the Senate needs to announce a schedule by early July to complete voting before the August recess, otherwise it will be postponed to September, when the approaching midterm elections make contentious votes harder to schedule. Priority legislation such as FISA Section 702 and the NDAA is taking up significant time, and Trump's refusal to sign the housing bill further exacerbates schedule pressure.